Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Hillary Clinton's Secret Obama Bombshell

This weekend I'll be writing about the "big question" for the Democrats - whether Obama will offer Hillary Clinton the vice-presidential nomination. And, if he does offer it, will she accept? To me, asking the question is something like enquiring if a football team wants to be the runner-up in the Super Bowl. Mrs. Clinton wants to become President, not vice-president. More to come late Friday night . . . "Nobody remembers who finished second . . . " Hint: I believe Obama's VP running mate will be John Edwards of North Carolina.

This column is more speculative than usual, because I don't know what the Clinton Campaign's big secret is. However, I strongly suspect it has one (or probably more). Whatever the secret(s) are, they are highly unfavorable to Barack Obama. They could cost him the nomination.

My reasoning: Senator Obama now has a majority of the so-called "pledged" delegates. He has a growing majority of the so-called "SuperDelegates," those monuments to utter disdain for democracy, are allied with Obama.

Yet, Mrs. Clinton, who was not born yesterday, believes strongly that she will get the nomination. Why? She must have a reason for assuming "SuperDelegates" will desert Obama in droves.

The Internet is exploding with rumors about Obama's drug use and sexual misbehavior. The most serious accusations seem to originate with one Larry Sinclair and his online "posse." If you wish, you can talk a look at what Sinclair says:

Frankly, I have some serious doubts about the veracity of Larry Sinclair. If what he says is true, he could prove it by taking a polygraph test from a reputable examiner. Sending heated e-mails to the Democratic National Committee is not the same thing. Sinclair's world is not one you'd even want to stir with a stick.

The point remains: either Sen. Clinton is pulling off the greatest bluff in the history of politics -- or she has something significant to spring on Obama. She does not play for "the love of the game"; she plays to win.

Will the big secret -- the bombshell -- be an example of Mrs. Clinton's supposedly "negative campaigning?" In fact, she hasn't really engaged in such campaigning. Part of her responsibility is to explain why she thinks she would be the best Democrat for the nomination. The other part is to explain the ways in which her opponent is deficient -- particularly in his lack of experience.

Again, the evidence suggests Sen. Clinton thinks she will win the nomination. She's enough of a realist to understand that she will be nominee only if some very negative information about Obama comes out.

My guess -- and it is a guess -- is that the information will be forthcoming early in June -- perhaps on June 3, the date of the Puerto Rico primary.

If the information is very damaging to Obama, the SuperDelegates -- many of them -- will shift from the Illinois Senator to the New York Senator. They will do so because she is polling much better than Obama in three crucial battleground states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida.

Thus, Hillary Clinton could end up being the nominee after all. Stay tuned.

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