Sarah Palin: Is this the face of America's next Vice President? (Note: Please visit -- and bookmark -- my new site by clicking on the following: http://draftpalin2012.blogspot.com/.)I expect Barack Obama to win the popular vote by perhaps three million ballots. However, that doesn't mean John McCain has no chance to win the presidency. How could that happen? (Obama apparently will win California by two million votes; he will win NY by almost one million. That will make the rest of the country roughly even. McCain is not competing in CA or NY.)
To emerge with a victory on Nov. 4, McCain needs to win Ohio, FL, PA, MN, NC, and VA. Other than that, we're in great shape. :-)
However, we have a chance of winning those five states. If we lose one, I prefer it to be VA. McCain has a narrow window, but narrow is better than a brick wall. If McCain pulls off a big upset in a state, please God, let it be CO!
Critical point: If you hear a lot Tuesday night about the "Wilder Effect," you are allowed to cheer and have a couple of drinks. That refers to the time when Doug Wilder, of marginal African-American descent, was ahead in the polls by 9 points for Gov. of VA. In fact, he ended up winning by just under ONE percent. People fib to pollsters for much the same reason they hang up on telemarketers.
I have a hunch Obama will get about 3-4% fewer votes (and McCain about 2-3% more) in battleground states than the polls suggest. If that doesn't happen, the Obaminable One probably wins. :-
When I need sources of optimism, I look back to the Dem. Primaries, where Obama was supposed to win NH big (and he lost rather badly) and come close in PA (where he lost b y almost 10 points). Must have been "the Wilder Effect," right?
2 comments:
You're not going to win the confidence of your readers by misleading them...
Why McCain won't get more, but in fact substantially LESS than the polls indicate:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/cellphone-effect-continued.html
Why your reference to Wilder, a terrible example for many many reasons (won't go into that here) will have very little relevance to the 2008 presidential election:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html
Hey guys! Fake John Mayer here.
D-day is here for all you fake democrats. I mean really this entire blog reads like a McCain-bot.
But this is the beautiful thing about real American - you can talk crap and mislead and feed folks fake information but in the end those patriots that get out there and vote with their convictions prevail over the garbage.
Peace Out,
FJM
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